AT&T Byron Nelson

Another 2nd at Potomac last week but what a slog. A brilliant course that would grace a US Open if they could dry it out, Max Homa scrambling his way to victory in an event that suited ducks and swimmers. Cam Young is a real star for the future, very Tyrell Hatton like,

but a better putter and a much better temperament he will be backed again, and again and again. 40/1 each way saw a profitable week and I will publish and update my bets to show profits and losses now there is a sample size.

This week sees a real ramp up in quality in the field before the PGA next week. DJ, JT, Speith, the Scheff, the Schauff and many more top 20 players tee it up. I do think the places will be loaded with stars this week so finding that value may have to be with 8-9 places. but that's why we thieve from the rich to give to ourselves.

I'm torn between players who will be working on things on the course after time off. So I'm going for the bloke who didn't get married so probably did put time in with his putter, unlike DJ with his driver, his putter and his Huckleberry Finn beard.

TPC Craig Ranch this week par 72, 7468yards, a lot of rolling hills, a creek that runs through it and elevated greens protected by sand it looks to the eye like Bethpage Black or Shinnecock but Sam Burns has the course record with 62 and last year and KH Lee shot 25 under so the similarities end there! It rained here in 2021 so maybe the soft conditions blunted it's test but despite it being baking hot, 90 degrees all week so - firm and fast, the scores will probably be in the high teens, so look out for putting stats, you don't win with low numbers unless you can roll your onion.

So to contradict myself immediately my first selection is Justin Thomas. JT has 6 top 10s in his last 11 starts, and given that he has putted like Michael J Fox in a wet bathtub, that is some achievement. There is a mix of mid irons and wedge approaches here and there is no better in the game with either. His odds never appeal because he either putts awful or average, so at 14s is he appealing? Well yes, for me he will be bang there come Sunday, he will place and I'm hoping it's firm which should help his short putting stroke. 5pts e/w 14/1 8 places.

Next up is someone who won't have any trouble finding the bottom of the cup and it was great to see him in the mix on Sunday last week, Ricky Ponting....er I mean Brian Harman. Separated at birth with Ricky Ponting, Harman changed his name and still pretends they aren't related. He's a streaky player and if he gets his driver going the short parts of his game, chipping, sand play, putting are awesome. 23rd in sand save percentage and 44th in putting are actually really poor stats for him, yet most would kill for them. The short, bulldog like lefty is one to side with at stupid odds and at 66/1 he's 2pts each way top 8.

Mind your shoes because the next pick is world champion spitter and tobacco chewer Kevin Kisner. Now KK has had a quiet year and is 80s and bigger in places, yet he still placed 4th at the players, 3rd in the Sony under the Hawaii sun, and was his usual self in the matchplay. He likes Texas, he likes the heat, he putts for fun and his odds are mouth-watering 2pts 80/1 8 places. Like Harman, he's short in length, stature and ball flight, so they don't fit in with the course, but they have just got game!

Last but by no means least is the usual biggy. It's a lazy pick, anybody could find it, but former winner Sung Kang has the love for this place, and the putting game to bring back some good vibes. He's made plenty of cuts a few top 30s this year and despite not being fully firing, I'm going with the Korean to post a good score early and get his juices flowing again. 300/1 top 8, 1pt is by far and away my best long shot of the year so far (even better than Kelly Kraft) until I have to revisit this blog and edit it on Saturday night!

The get out, cheat pick, which I'm not picking but do want to pick but won't pick is Seamus Power. Ideally I abandon JT at 14s and go with Seamus at 60s, but I'm in need of a winner so have abandoned my principles - I think, well I'll decide on Wednesday night, especially if the odds change when Steve Palmer puts his picks out.

Watch out for the profit and loss publishing, to follow. 20points investment only, save some of that Cameron Young profit for the 2nd Major of the year next week.......and pay attention to DJ and if he can get rid of the lefts over the next few days.