Drum roll please

It's the last major of the year, and seeing as the PGA of America switched the PGA from August to May, this is the climax of the season (the play offs aren't it!). As the players travel West, across the Irish sea, a switch from one of the worst golf courses to hold a tour event (co-sanctioned) to one of the great Open championship venues beckons.

Royal Portrush, the scene that sets up the 153rd Open, isn't a defenceless bore like so many outdated Open courses these days, this place has teeth. In 2019 Shane Lowry obliterated a field of his peers with some superb tee to green accuracy and here, this week, driving it straight, hitting greens and 2 putting will be so important. Unlike many events we cover, the Open has very much a Masters feel, it is horses for courses, or in this sense, horses for styles of courses, and links golf isn't something you can just do, it needs to be embraced and learnt. I'm not over complicating this event, links form, links embracing and previous Open records mean a lot, especially around Troon and Royal Liverpool which were similarly tough and tight.

Royal Portrush, County Antrim, Northern Ireland. The jewel in the Irish crown, a Par 71, 7381 yards, four par 3s, 3 par 5s won't be defended by the weather this year, but it will be defended by it's increased length from 2019, some new pin positions the R&A will set up to test the players, and a host of internal out of bounds and trouble off the tee. Some mild weather, light rain and 10-12mph winds, no particular draw bias it hasn't been a long list to draw from and as I have ignored the top of the market completely (I think Rahm is the pick of the top boys) I've gone with value, winning chances and 6 players and 40pts total to go with our popcorn.

In order of chances of winning, rather than odds, here we go, and I'm starting with a sleeper pick but with good reason. In 2019 as they embraced on the 18th Green at this very venue, BROOKS KOEPKA said to Ricky Elliott, his caddie, and Northern Ireland native, "I'm sorry I couldn't get it done for you this week man". A touching moment for sure, and Brooks did his man proud finishing 4th. This guy is a known quantity of course, but a 5 time major champion, his pedigree is unmatched in this era currently, and although his wins are all US Open and PGAs, he has cache in links golf. A 6th at Birkdale, 4th at Portrush, 6th at RSG he has played well on the tougher tracks but his motivation is everything. Sometimes motivation can be manufactured, you can convince yourself that this means everything, but with Brooks wanting this so much for his long time caddie and friend you just know he will have been preparing for this all year. His 12th at Oakmont showed he still has that game in there, and I have 'the feels' for him here, more so than at any point since we put him up for the 2023 PGA. I will caveat that we are going early and we are taking reduced places on the early showing, but he's 66/1 with Bet365 8 places and we are 5pts e/w and incredibly bullish.

Staying with LIV players next and I'm going from 5 time major winner to non time, but in TYRELL HATTON, there is just so much to admire in how he plays tough courses and majors. 14th at the Masters, 4th at Oakmont, he's won his 1 DP world tour event this season and he loves Links golf, He's won the Alfred Dunhill Links championship 3 times, often in very tough Autumnal conditions and he is rightly towards the top end of the betting. Bet365 again are the early show for value and his 28/1 appeals and at 8 places we go 7pts e/w on the fiery Englishman.

Back into the comfy slippers brigade we go now, and if there's a player I admire and follow more than RUSSELL HENLEY right now, then I don't know who he is. Tee to green this guy is god like, Scheffler like, and he comes here after a 5th at Troon in 2024. Another real draw for me, is that Russell's putter is currently holding him back, but that flat stick is his equaliser. Like the little girl, with the little curl, right in the middle of her forehead, his putter when it is good is very very good, and when it is bad it is horrid. His Open record is a poor one, but on recency bias a top 5 last year is a good one. Belief that he can play links golf will coarse through his veins at long last and if he can marry that with putting on Links greens then his odds of 66/1 with Hills 8 places are very appealing. 3pts e/w on Russell.

Some shameless promoting of 2023 and obvious bias next as 150/1 hero BRIAN HARMAN has to be on the roster for 2025. He didn't defend well last year, but he was not a hail mary for Royal Liverpool, this boy has links pedigree. Ignoring last years defense and 60th place his record at the Open reads, 1st, 6th, 19th, he hits it straight, he keeps it in play, his putter has been awful this year but he is a probably THE BEST putter on Links greens in the field and at 90/1 he cannot be ignored. 90/1 with Bet365 8 places is the play (other shorter odds are available on extra places) and we are 2pts each way on the lefty waggler.

We go full English to finish on our final 2 selections. MARCO PENGE finishing 2nd at Renaissance last week has hurt me a lot. He was a pick this week come what may, after a 28th at The PGA this season, at 54 under for his 7 events played. He has 1 win from 5 events on the DP World tour, and the big if, is if he can get the ball in play off the tee. He is 8th on the DP World tour greens in reg, 2nd in scoring average and a great putter and his odds of 100/1 with Betfred 10 places appeal although they are half of what they were, so 2pts e/w on him.

Last up is a no brainer for me, and it is based purely upon his record in the Open championship.

Last up it's insane asylum odds, but after having to qualify for the Open for the first time since 1995, LEE WESTWOOD travelled to Dundonald Links to tee it up with the young bucks and he won the event. He won it at a course he had never played, he is 52 now, but he just knows golf, he still hits it straight, he finished 4th here in 2019, he has 5 top 5s at the Open including a 2nd at St Andrews in 2010 and he is just screaming each way chance. 350/1 8 places with Bet365 he is our final selection and 1pt e/w.

Have a great week everyone, only bet what you can afford to lose, remember this is not an exact science, we will make money long term, but do not invest heavily on weeks, invest in time, we've got this covered.

TEWT