Oh no, it's Oakmont - Trigger Warning
- oshea2707
- Jun 9
- 5 min read
Oakmont Country Club, the site of the 125th US Open could be a show like no other in 2025, strap in for one hell of a ride this week, as we may see a winning score of over par for the first time since 2018 at Shinnecock.
Nobody wants to hear excuses for last week, so let's just say out loud, one and all "Nick Taylor we forgive you". Stupid idiot doubling 17, never mind we move on.
This week is by far the easiest to write about and prep for. Firstly I cannot see a scenario where Dechambeau isn't in contention and if I'm honest I can't see anyone but him winning, but at 15/2 this is not the place for that kind of punting. His driving, his short game, his putting, he is the only player I feel is capable of playing well for all 4 rounds. I'm against Scottie this week, that left miss he is managing just won't cut it here, and although he is worthy favourite he is beatable.
So Oakmont is the venue and it is also the event, it is the star this week and along with Valderrama and Shinnecock Hills it is possibly the hardest golf course in all of Professional tournament golf. The rough is up to 6 inches, the greens are so fast, sloping, undulating and tough that putting is more important than anywhere else and it it is long, fuck me it's long. At 7372 Yards this par 70 plays so long because it is firm and danger with driver is everywhere. Therefore players will hang back off the tee on some holes leaving longer irons into firm fast and fiery greens that are all running away from them. Many holes will yield more double bogeys or worse than birdies throughout the 4 days, it will be ridiculous, but entertaining and be prepared for woke, wet golfing commentary claiming it's gone too far, there is no such thing. In 2016 Shane Lowry blew a 4 shot lead and lost to Dustin Johnson who drove like god all week. Only 4 players finished under par (3 of which were 1 under), and it was playing easier than it will this week. So without further ado lets get into those who could contend but more importantly those who can place and nick some much needed profits into the kitty.
The big 2 are a cut apart from everyone else (Mcilroy is gone until the Open), BUT that would be a big 3 based upon last season. 2 time major winner from last season XANDER SCHAUFFELE is getting stronger every week after his problematic rib injury, which saw him miss the first 4 months of the season. His tee balls are still a bit off but I see him hitting a lot of drawing 3 woods here. His iron play is up there with Scottie, and his putting has always been suspect, but he can hang tough, he can grind it out and he has the all round game that can contend. His injury means he is priced accordingly, and at 20/1 here 8 places with Bet365 we go 8pts ew and he is stand out our best chance of winning.
If place money had a gold star next to it then 8 time tour winner PATRICK CANTLAY is incredible value. He is 9th on tour Strokes gained, he is ahead of each metric (driving, approach, putting, tee to green) and he is incredibly solid. His results have been pretty average for him, but 12th at the players 4th at the Truist, 12th at Memorial all with his B game, he feels close. He missed the cut by 1 at the PGA, there is a lot more to come, and the kicker is he is 33/1 on a course most guys just aren't equipped to play at. 6pts e/w Bet365 8 places on the 'deliberate' Californian who comes alive in the 2nd half of a season which has a Ryder cup in it.
It's been a tough year for the blog, but the one reason we are still turning profit is one name. RUSSELL HENLEY proved he has what it takes to play the toughest course on the regular tour calendar, and his win at Bayhill lit up our accounts. He finished 5th at memorial he has 6 top 10s this season, his iron play is as good as it gets and he putts superbly on fast greens. A shoe in for the Ryder cup Henley is a top shelf golfer and another who has the game to grind 4 days out here, and at 50/1 8 places with Bet365 we are 4pts ew.
Into the big ones now and we are going with youth and power. First up I've lost the plot again. Nobody has more 2nd places on the PGA tour and possibly nobody as more appearances in the eachwaythief blog than CAMERON YOUNG. We are back on first name terms and after his gutsy and smoked 3 wood on 18 in Canada he is in a great place. He achieved 177mph ball speed with his 3 wood, he hit the sweetest shot of his life that tracked towards the flag and then sadly 15 yards over it costing him any chance of tying the lead. He didn't back off, he didnt do a Fleetwood and try and hit 3 irons into a par 5, he went for it, he rolled the dice and he was just unlucky. It wasn't a capitulation like we saw in the Valspar against Malnati last year (yep thief bingo is on fire right now), and his last few performances, 7th at the Truist, 47th at the PGA, 25th at Memorial, 4th last week all point at his star rising again. A great driver and a brilliant lag putter, he has the strength to hack out of some of this rough and the game to make it round here. He is a crazy price compared to some of his fellow competitors and at 150/1 with Paddy Power 8 places we go 2.5pts ew.
The only surprise about the re selection of cheese eating surrender monkey VICTOR PEREZ is his price for this. He's been appearing on some early leaderboards, and his 9th place last week was his first top 10 of the season. He's strong tee to green, he putts ok, his short game isn't stellar but at 350/1 I'm happy to put up 1pt e/w on him 8 places with Bet365, in the hope eventually he performs for us. Do bear in mind he has 6 DP Tour wins and one in the big one in Abu Dhabi, he is no mug.
We end this blog with 2 ridiculous picks, but at the prices I can't not have a pop. First up the biggest price I've ever put up, and recent qualifier TREVOR CONE. He has only made 2 cuts all season and apart from a 3rd at the Barbasol 2 years ago has no form. However, there is a case that this big hitting Virginia Tech graduate will enjoy his first major and at 2500/1 we are investing a speculative 0.5pts ew on him with Bet365 8 places.
Last up a man who has a win to his name this season and is a fine player who is way overpriced. JOE HIGHSMITH won at PGA National which is a tough firm track, and he then went on to finish 8th at the PGA on another tough layout. He has great maturity and spirit for a fresh faced tour pro, and if he can get on these surfaces quickly, he is another great lag putter, He is inexplicably 500/1 this week and I'm looking at 1pt e/w on him with Bet365 8 places again.
Check out my youtube, insta and tik tok profiles for all video content throughout the week, enjoy one and all, TEWT.
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